Alcaraz Eyes First-Ever Italian Open Final
Carlos Alcaraz has reached the semifinals of the Italian Open for the first time in his career, and standing between him and the final is Italy’s own Lorenzo Musetti. With strong performances in Monte Carlo and Barcelona earlier this season, Alcaraz has emerged as a dominant force on clay. But with the Rome crowd behind Musetti, could an upset be brewing?
Alcaraz’s 2025 Journey So Far
The Spaniard’s year began with a quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open, followed by an indoor hard court title win in Rotterdam. Despite a surprise early exit in Miami to David Goffin, Alcaraz bounced back with a Monte Carlo Masters title, defeating none other than Musetti in the final. He followed that up with a runner-up finish in Barcelona after losing to Holger Rune.
In Rome, Alcaraz has looked sharp, taking out Dusan Lajovic, Laslo Djere, Karen Khachanov, and avenging his Indian Wells loss to Jack Draper in the quarterfinals.
Musetti’s Redemption Arc
After a shaky start to the season, Musetti found his rhythm in Monte Carlo, reaching the final before falling to Alcaraz in three sets. His campaign in Madrid saw him reach the semifinals, and now he’s backed that up with a strong showing in Rome—his best ever at the Italian Open.
The 22-year-old Italian has taken down Otto Virtanen, Brandon Nakashima, Daniil Medvedev, and Alexander Zverev to reach the final four. With a passionate home crowd and momentum, he enters the semis full of belief.
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz Dominates
Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 4-1. Their most recent meeting came at the 2025 Monte Carlo final, where Alcaraz dismantled Musetti 3-6, 6-1, 6-0. Here’s a quick look at their past encounters:
* **2025 Monte Carlo Final**: Alcaraz def. Musetti 3-6, 6-1, 6-0
* **2024 Miami Open R16**: Alcaraz def. Musetti 6-3, 6-3
* **2023 China Open R16**: Alcaraz def. Musetti 6-2, 6-2
* **2023 French Open R16**: Alcaraz def. Musetti 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
* **2022 Hamburg Final**: Musetti def. Alcaraz 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-4
Stat Breakdown: Who Has the Edge?
Alcaraz holds an 84.8% win rate in 2025 (28-5), with two titles already this year. Musetti’s season has also been solid, winning 20 of 26 matches, but with less consistency at the highest level. Alcaraz has a more complete game: explosive athleticism, elite drop shots, and powerful baseline control. Musetti’s elegance and one-handed backhand make him dangerous—especially on clay—but he will need to play near-perfect tennis to prevail.
Prediction: Alcaraz to Win in Straight Sets
While Musetti is in great form and has the crowd on his side, Alcaraz’s superior form, recent dominance, and head-to-head edge make him the heavy favorite. Expect the Spaniard to keep his foot on the gas and book his ticket to the final with another straight-set victory.